When Hurricane Ernesto dissipated in the Atlantic Ocean on Aug. 20 after peaking as a Category 1 storm, hurricane researcher Philip Klotzbach was surprised to see a total lack of disturbances on its heels.Â
A senior research scientist at Colorado State University, where renowned professor and meteorologist Bill Gray made a point of ringing a bell on Aug. 20 each year to signify the start of the most active part of the Atlantic hurricane season, Klotzbach thought it was odd to see so little tropical activity on that particularly notable day.Â
On August 20 every year, Dr. Bill Gray would ring a bell denoting the start of the climatologically most active portion of the Atlantic season. Historically, about 2/3 of all Atlantic hurricane activity occurs between August 20 - October 10.
— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach)
After 25 years of hurricane forecasting, Klotzbach has become accustomed to the occasional surprise. He assumed he'd see an uptick in tropical activity soon.Â
But until a disturbance was spotted near the central tropical Atlantic late on Aug. 26, the total quiet continued for six days, piquing the interest of meteorologists and climate researchers who largely predicted 2024 would be
Even now, with several disturbances dotting the ocean, Klotzbach said none show much potential to form into anything more than "anemic."Â
“I haven’t seen a year where the conditions were so conducive flopping so miserably," Klotzbach said.Â
Though it might seem like an insignificant intermission from tropical activity, this year so far has been remarkably unusual, Klotzbach said.
Since Ernesto formed as a tropical storm on Aug. 12, the Atlantic hasn't seen a single other named storm. The last time the Atlantic went without a named storm from Aug. 13 through Sept. 3 was 56 years ago in 1968, which Klotzbach called "a complete junk season."
Researchers have come up with , but Klotzbach said no one predicted it.Â
Louisiana residents who have endured the repeated wrath of hurricanes will not lament the forecasters' conundrum. But it's not that Klotzbach wants to see big, destructive storms. It's that he wants to see accurate forecasts.Â
“I guess that’s what makes this, in a way, disturbing," he said. "Because nobody saw this coming."
'Harbinger' of an active season
Like this season, 1968 got off to a chaotic start, with three named storms forming before the end of June. But the following months were practically dead, and the season ended with eight named storms, five of which were hurricanes. Gladys, which formed in October and peaked as a Category 1 storm, was the season's strongest storm.Â
Early season hurricane activity is not necessarily correlated with how the rest of the season will play out, according to analyzing the 2024 season so far.Â
But when early activity occurs specifically in the tropical Atlantic, like it did this season, "it is often a harbinger of a very active season," according to CSU. Since 1900, every year with a hurricane in the tropical Atlantic prior to Aug. 1 was classified as above-normal using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's ACE index, which attempts to quantify seasons through factors including each storm's wind and staying power.Â
Hurricane Beryl, , formed in the tropical Atlantic this summer and was "an extremely impressive hurricane, generating the most ACE of any individual hurricane activity prior to 1 August on record," CSU said.Â
It would seem to be an omen of more to come. But instead of the expected increase in activity as peak season arrived, Klozbach said, "the season is just like ‘forget it I'm done.' It's just extremely weird.â€
Data from 1944 to 2000 shows the busiest period for tropical storms and cyclones in the Atlantic Basin runs from mid-August through October, with Sept. 10 being the peak of hurricane season.Â
How 2024 is stacking up
, CSU, which has been issuing hurricane season forecasts for the last 40 years, predicted 23 named storms, including 11 hurricanes. Five of those were expected to develop into major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or above.
So far, there have been only five named storms. Still, as of Sept. 3, the 2024 season's ACE index was sitting slightly above the historical norm for this time of year from 1991 through 2020, according to data collected by CSU.Â
“We're still above normal, which is crazy given how dead it’s been," Klotzbach said, adding that 2024's current score is almost entirely thanks to Beryl.Â
If tropical activity were to continue at a normal pace for the rest of the season, 2024 could still turn out to be an above-average year. But among the most active in history? Klotzbach said that prediction could only come to fruition if things really ramp up — and fast.Â
Klotzbach said there's a lot of season left and things can change quickly in the Atlantic. In his time as a forecaster, he's seen all kinds of freak storms and dead seasons that come to life late in the fall.Â
But with all the usual predictors — record-breaking sea surface temperatures and the looming return of La Niña —  pointing to a busy 2024 that hasn't necessarily turned up, Klotzbach said his confidence in forecasting right now is shaken.Â
"It's hard, and it's hard to know," Klotzbach said. "Of course, the million-dollar question for me is can we forecast this in the future?"Â
